📸 Vahid Salemi, Associated Press
In its relations with regional and international actors, Iran is currently unfolding a three-way battle, in addition to the one fought internally where the perceived stability of the regime goes through a series of shocks determined both by the way in which Iran is viewed regionally and globally and by the authoritarianism and corruption that characterize the regime. The three crucial issues that the West must resolve when it comes to its relations with Tehran and the region follow outspoken efforts to mend the ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia. However, without addressing the other factors, warming relations between the two rivals may remain nothing more than a dream.
Firstly, the Vienna negotiations to reach a new nuclear agreement reached a deadlock and the current situation does not give us any reason to be optimistic about the future of the discussions. The regime in Tehran advanced its demands to the P5+1 powers (China, Germany, France, Russia, the UK, and the US), among which lifting all the sanctions imposed on Iran and eliminating the terrorist designation of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In addition, the Iranian negotiators request a written promise from Washington stating that the US will not take again the unilateral decision to withdraw from a new agreement. It is unlikely that the American party will agree to any of these demands, just as it is unlikely that the US will get anything better than former President Barack Obama’s JCPOA without making further concessions to Iran, despite the European Union’s efforts to resume talks.
Secondly, Israel, America’s most important ally in the region, becomes more and more aggressive in its foreign policy toward Iran. During the past weeks, an IRGC colonel was assassinated in the capital of Tehran, the Parchin military complex, where there were rumors in the past (contradicted though by the International Atomic Energy Agency) that Iran develops nuclear weapons, was attacked by drones, Israeli officials constantly made belligerent statements, including Prime Minister Naftali Bennett who said that the era of Iran’s “immunity” is over, and the Israeli armed forces conducted a massive military exercise simulating attacks on Iran and Hezbollah. Concerning the drills, reports surfaced alleging that the US provided in-air refueling for Israeli jets, but Washington denied all of them. To this moment, it is not clear whether the latest moves by Israel are coordinated with the US, as the Biden administration looks determined to make certain concessions and tone down its discourse regarding Iran in order to reach a new nuclear agreement.
Thirdly, recent Iranian actions in the Persian Gulf show its readiness to engage in maritime standoffs. In the latest incident, Tehran seized two Greece-flagged vessels under unspecified maritime violations, in response to the confiscation by Greek authorities of an Iranian ship carrying Russian oil, action taken under sanctions imposed by the West following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Iran’s aggression toward commercial vessels crossing through Hormuz Strait can severely disrupt the maritime activities in the area and put in danger the global supply, especially with oil, as about 30% of the international consumption passes through the region. Moreover, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed to a certain extent by Iran, have developed the capabilities to endanger the maritime transit through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait at the Red Sea. Tehran’s aggressive posture in the Persian Gulf comes in connection to its demands for lifting the sanctions imposed by the West, as well as in the context of the severe measures taken against Russia which now may see in Iran a solution in terms of oil and gas trade. However, another aspect is also an attempt by the regime in Tehran to distract attention from the domestic challenges it currently faces.
About two weeks ago, a tragic incident took place in Iran’s Khuzestan province. A business and residential building collapsed, causing the death of at least 41 people until now, while search and rescue workers continue to pull out victims from under the debris. The incident pushed the local population to the streets where their demands quickly turned political. An emissary sent by the government to calm the spirits was close to being lynched by the angry citizens who reached the point of chanting “death to Khamanei”, referring to Iran’s supreme leader. The protesters accuse local authorities of corruption and poor construction practices. During the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), large parts of the region were completely destroyed and reconstruction projects were often criticized for not respecting good standards. The demonstrations add up to wider protests that took place across the country in recent weeks, citizens voicing anger over a significant increase in food prices. Authorities intervened brutally to keep the people under control and even shut down the internet in order to prevent images from circulating on social media platforms.
The incapacity to reach a new nuclear agreement with Tehran will likely lead Iran to pursue Uranium enrichment to the point of being able to obtain a nuclear weapon. The relations between Iran and Israel are currently in an orange area, very tense, a situation in which the reaction of one to the aggressivity of the other may spark a major confrontation. Without a solution to what is happening in the Persian Gulf with regard to maritime traffic will possibly lead to more hostile actions by the regime in Tehran, putting also in danger the trade in the Red Sea as the Houthi rebels already perpetrated several piracy actions, planted underwater mines, and, according to available information, they own and operate unmanned underwater vehicles. As efforts are put into improving the ties between Tehran and Riyadh, if the process continues, it will have only a limited impact. Bilateral actions will not significantly improve the situation in the region as long as several other regional and international powers continue to see Iran as a major security threat. Thus, the West must pay greater attention to these three issues and work towards finding a solution. Unfortunately, this process needs to take place in close coordination with regional allies because they will need to be socialized into not perceiving Iran as the ultimate enemy in order for any agreement between Western powers and Tehran to work.
The three aspects of Iran’s foreign policy are intertwined and cannot be solved individually. A new nuclear agreement cannot be reached without further concessions by the P5+1 powers such as lifting the sanctions imposed on Tehran. Releasing the tensions in Iranian-Israeli relations will not be possible unless Israel is convinced that Iran does not represent an existential threat to its security, which means that the regime in Tehran must also tone down its position toward Tel Aviv. The economic sanctions will continue to produce incidents such as the seizure of the Iranian vessel to which Tehran will respond in the same aggressive manner. It is necessary that all diplomatic actions regarding Iran be coupled with efforts to socialize regional allies into de-escalating their relations with Tehran in order to have a guarantee, even if relative, that they will not oppose new agreements, and, gradually, will no longer see Iran as a major security threat, of course, as long as Tehran will comply with the provisions of the new accords, stimulated by the benefits they bring to it.